AGP Executive Report

Rental market: Rent growth slowed to its weakest pace in nearly two years. Sydney rents fell 0.4% in the September quarter, while national rents rose 0.5%; the median reached a record $713 a week as vacancy rates edged up and affordability pressures mounted. Housing policy: Changes to investor tax breaks are fuelling a political fight, with concerns that reduced investor appetite could further limit rental supply. Building pipeline: Dwelling starts rose 7% in the June quarter, but builders warn of a weaker outlook as costs stall future apartment projects. Housing targets are also slipping, with data-centre expansion raising fresh concerns about competition for land and power. Market pressure: Distressed property listings are surging, while reports of falling prices and unsold stock point to mounting strain for some owners and sellers.

Rental Pressure: Australian rent growth has stalled as tenants hit their affordability ceiling. House rents across capital cities were flat in the September quarter, while unit rents rose 1.5%; Sydney house rents edged lower. WA Housing Supply: Applications have opened for the state’s $250 million Pre-sale Guarantee, which can cover up to half of a development’s unsold homes at completion. The scheme aims to help apartment and townhouse projects secure finance and unlock up to 1,200 homes. Building Shortfall: Dwelling starts rose 7% in the June quarter, but construction remains well behind national targets. Rising costs are also stalling future apartment projects, despite a busy construction pipeline.

Housing Supply: Dwelling starts rose 7% in the June quarter to 52,201, but Australia remains behind its housing target. Builders warn a shortage of apprentices could slow construction further. Data Centre Pressure: A proposed $15 billion Wagga Wagga data centre is drawing local opposition over its use of farmland, power and water, as the boom raises concerns about competing with housing for resources. Mortgage Stress: Distressed property listings climbed 29.2% year-on-year in September, though they remain relatively low. Rental Squeeze: House rents were flat across capital cities in the September quarter despite tight supply, suggesting tenants are reaching their affordability limit. Perth rents held at $750 a week. Market and Planning: Auction clearance rates fell to a three-month low, while NSW recorded its highest housing completions in five years after planning reforms.

Housing Supply Crunch: Master Builders says Australia is on track to miss the 1.2m National Housing Accord target by 262,000 homes, with early signs pointing to a softer construction pipeline. Construction Momentum: Home building starts rose 7% in the June quarter, but builders still flag a weaker outlook as the broader target gap widens. Planning Watch: Arada won its first Sydney planning approval for London Place in Campsie—156 apartments with 18 affordable units—aiming to start construction in 2Q 2027. Market Signals: Mirvac’s wholesale office fund has settled a large part interest in a premium Martin Place tower, a rare read on prime CBD pricing as rates and bond yields bite. Small Business Pressure: CreditorWatch reports hiring and expansion intentions are falling, with smaller firms most cautious—another headwind for the property and construction ecosystem. Energy Costs for Farms: Diesel prices are surging, hitting farmers hard during harvest and raising food inflation risk.

Property Finance & Distress: A New Zealand property developer behind the stalled Half Moon Bay projects has been pushed into liquidation, with creditors facing a reported $4.7m shortfall and secured claims including $2.7m owed to Vincent Capital. Luxury Listings: A Brighton beachside mansion at 13 Elwood Street is marketed for $11.16m, highlighting continued demand for high-end coastal stock. State Housing Policy: Victoria’s land tax “Covid Debt Levy” is tracking for a more than $1bn shortfall, with the government revising plans after warnings of investor pullbacks. Planning & Development: Castlecrag residents say they’ve lost the right to object after a high-rise twin-tower proposal was tweaked down from 150 to 130 apartments and reduced storeys. Social Housing Build: A $25m Victorian project will deliver 41 homes for vulnerable groups, with completion targeted for 2028. Market Mood: Consumer confidence has slumped to a historic low after the latest RBA rate hike, feeding “recession-like” concerns for households. Data Centres & AI: Industry groups warn Australia must build local AI/data-centre capability rather than rely on overseas capacity.

Housing & Rent Stress: A new PureProfile poll finds renters are twice as likely as homeowners to report wellbeing hit (66% vs 27%), underlining how cost pressure is spilling into daily life. Market Pulse: The ASX 200 rose for a third straight session, with property stocks rebounding after recent weakness, even as consumer confidence slumped following the RBA rate hike. Data Centres & Power Rules: Australia is moving to legislate mandatory AI infrastructure standards, including net-generator style obligations for major data centres—an issue that will shape land, grid connections and future development pipelines. Construction & Regional Growth: Queensland is seeing a construction-led lift, with record new home spending and strong interstate inflows feeding demand for well-located housing. Energy Storage Build: Origin is seeking federal approval for an 8-hour, 500MW battery expansion at the Eraring precinct, adding another major infrastructure project with local planning impacts. Migration Debate: The Coalition pitches a “biggest cut” to migration, targeting temporary visas and aiming to reduce net overseas migration—policy that could affect housing demand and construction workloads.

Housing & Insurance: ARC Justice warns rising premiums could leave parts of Greater Shepparton “uninsurable”, after its 2026 report found 40% of people are uninsured or underinsured and flood victims say payouts are being denied or priced out. Payments & Property Tech: REA Group has introduced an American Express card surcharge workaround, sparking backlash from real estate professionals who say it undermines the RBA’s no-surcharge rules. Sydney Luxury Sales: Point Piper’s $75m trophy home Radford is tipped to be bought by Steven and Carol Moss, following their involvement in the flydubai hijack incident. Renewables Approval: NSW has green-lit BayWa r.e.’s Bullawah hybrid wind and battery project near Hay, with up to 141 turbines and 359MW/718MWh storage. Market Watch: People First Bank says buyers are pausing to see where prices land as house values fall and mortgage rates stay high. Disaster Recovery: UNSW research highlights that recovery after bushfires, floods and storms is slow and multi-layered, with housing, health and money impacts compounding. Energy Efficiency for Rentals: NSW’s proposed minimum rental efficiency standards are framed as a win for tenants’ bills and landlords’ property values.

Housing Market Watch: Australia’s property boom is cooling fast, with national house prices down for a sixth straight month and now about 5.2% below the March 2026 peak, led by sharper falls in Sydney (-8.6%) and Melbourne (-7.2%), while regional areas still hold up better. Policy & Tax: Victoria election talk is heating up with Liberal-Nationals promising a higher payroll tax-free threshold and a lower metro rate, while federal tax changes remain in limbo as Parliament returns mid-October (departure tax, family trust minimum tax, plus the next stage of CGT/negative gearing reforms). Super & Home Buying: The debate over using super for housing is back, but the practical option remains the First Home Super Saver scheme, as draft proposals and warnings continue around SMSF rules (including costly minimum pension mistakes). Build & Infrastructure: ALDI is pushing ahead with a $1bn+ automated Bradfield distribution centre in Western Sydney, aiming for 2030 operations with heavy automation and major capacity gains. Water & Land: WA Premier Roger Cook signals a backflip on desalination, weighing an Esperance plant while upgrades to the $543m Goldfields water pipeline ramp up.

Housing & Rentals: Australia’s rental squeeze is tightening again as vacancy rates fall and rents rise, while new rules around tenant information and the knock-on effects of the credit-card surcharge ban could hit renters who rely on cards to pay on time. Home Prices: Home values keep sliding, with reports pointing to a sixth straight month of falls and renewed pressure on first-home buyers facing negative equity risk. Construction Integrity: Victoria’s Big Build is facing fresh scrutiny after allegations of fake training and qualification certificates circulating through scam networks, raising safety concerns for worksites. Planning & Supply: Canberra’s housing targets are slipping, with modelling suggesting Labor is falling short on supply, and an intergenerational report flags a long-run homeownership decline for younger Australians. Property Market Watch: Auction clearance rates have dipped to a three-month low, and data highlights “black spots” where new home supply is running behind demand. Student & Build-to-Rent: Accor is moving into Australia’s rental housing pipeline via a white-label deal for student accommodation. Rural/Regional: SA’s short-stay accommodation register proposal is drawing mixed reactions from operators amid calls for better data and concerns about security.

Housing Supply Crunch: Australia is already more than 100,000 homes behind the National Housing Accord, with completions running at about 308,000 after seven quarters and forecasts warning the shortfall could reach ~260,000 unless policy settings change. Market Pulse: Auction clearance rates slipped to a three-month low as higher borrowing costs and recent rate rises cooled demand, with long weekends also denting auction volumes. Regional Infrastructure: WA’s new Laverton Hospital is now practically complete at $67.6m—over three times the original 2015 budget—featuring a 24-hour telehealth emergency department and expanded outpatient and mental health services. Planning & Community Backlash: Goodman has dropped its Lane Cove data centre plan after local opposition, while new rules in Victoria require data centres to use their own renewables and sit at least 150m from homes. Energy & Farming Impact: Victoria’s Marinus Link undersea power cable proposal is raising alarms for dairy farmers over land access and easement impacts. Politics: A shock poll shows One Nation overtaking Labor in Melbourne’s Footscray, signalling major primary-vote swings. Other: Sam Wood has been charged over alleged domestic violence and strangulation in Noosa.

Housing & Construction Costs: Reality TV–inspired renovators are abandoning half-finished Sydney homes as building costs bite, leaving properties stripped back to beams and raising questions about what “renovation” really costs once you’re past the demo stage. Property Market Pressure: Australia’s home-price slump is deepening, with reports pointing to a sixth straight month of falls and warnings that the downturn could extend into 2027. Renters Under Strain: Vacancy rates are falling and rents are rising, keeping pressure on households already facing higher borrowing costs. Legal & Neighbour Disputes: A NSW court case shows how hard it is to win tree-damage claims—nearby trees and damage aren’t enough; owners must prove the specific tree caused the specific damage. Super & Wealth: Record SMSF growth continues as more Australians seek control over retirement savings, while property declines raise concerns about household wealth. Infrastructure & Energy: Data-centre backlash is reshaping plans, and new battery and grid projects keep rolling out as states push for reliability. Rural Life: NSW Farmers wants daylight saving shortened, arguing it disrupts children’s school commutes and adds another hour to farm work.

Private Credit Shock: Metrics Master Income Trust and related vehicles were suspended after audited accounts flagged lower valuations, landing amid ASIC warnings about unrealistic valuations and weak governance in private lending. Data Centre Push Meets Community Scrutiny: Goodman flagged its next AGM in Sydney with securityholder resolutions seeking more disclosure on how it manages data-centre environmental, planning, community and social licence risks near sensitive areas. AI Infrastructure Funding: Macquarie Technology Group says its Super West data centre phase is on time and on budget, while NEXTDC completed a convertible notes raise to fund its AI-ready pipeline. Property Portals Expand Offshore: REA agreed to buy a meaningful minority stake in Distilled, owner of Daft.ie and PropertyPal, as it looks beyond Australia for listing growth. Home Insurance Renewal Frustration: CHOICE found 3 in 4 home insurance renewal notices give no explanation for premium hikes, leaving households with little clarity. Neighbour Tree Dispute: An NSW court rejected a homeowner’s bid to link boundary tree roots to claimed damage, saying the causal connection wasn’t proven. Construction Tenders (Perth): Perth northern suburbs schools moved closer to major upgrades, with tenders released for Belridge Secondary College and Karrinyup Primary School. Weather Disruption (Vic/NSW): Heavy rain and storms are disrupting parts of Victoria and could bring damaging conditions to NSW, with saturated soils raising flood risk.

Housing Supply Crunch: A new Greater Sydney “building blackspots” analysis says population growth is outpacing approved dwellings in 81 suburbs, with visible cranes not translating into enough homes. State Housing Pressure: Queensland is flagged as the biggest black spot state, with modelling putting it about 30,000 homes behind demand and warning first-home buyers are hit hardest. Victoria’s Target Under Threat: Victoria is forecast to fall short of its 800,000-home target, with Melbourne suburbs including Collingwood, Brunswick East, Truganina, Doncaster, Point Cook and Craigieburn among the hotspots where demand is running ahead of supply. Policy & Costs: Victoria’s new auction reserve rule is set to increase pressure on sellers, while RBA rate rises are adding to affordability stress for renters and buyers. Foreign Resident Tax Change: From 1 Oct 2026, expanded foreign-resident CGT rules broaden what counts as taxable Australian property and raise deal execution risk for land-connected transactions. Construction Industry Scrutiny: Police allege drug profits laundering via cash wages and shell construction businesses, prompting a wider crackdown.

Housing Finance Watch: Granite’s interest-only loans can dodge APRA’s 3% serviceability buffer, but the switch to principal-and-interest can trigger “repayment shock” once the interest-only period ends, with a $600k example jumping from about $3,250 to $4,470 a month. Gas Connection Costs: New rules from Oct 1 mean many new gas customers in NSW/ACT/parts of Qld must pay upfront connection costs (around $2,500), shifting costs away from broader network charges. Insurance & Cyclones: ARPC’s draft cyclone pool rates propose a 2.9% rise in total premiums from next July, driven by updated flood modelling and property location data. Homelessness & Housing Sector: Foundation Barossa and Homburg Real Estate renew a fund that tops up support for rough sleepers, with donations tied to property settlements and new rental listings. Energy Storage: A 400MW battery project in Queensland reaches financial close and is set to start construction, pushing back on claims the state is too tough for clean-energy investors. Property Development: Sobha Realty begins operations in the US and Australia after securing land for early residential projects in Texas and Queensland. Courtroom/Planning: Adelaide’s MotoGP street-circuit works face fresh Federal Court scrutiny as legal challenges continue around approvals and conservation referrals.

Foreign Affairs & Compliance: The AFP has finalised a foreign bribery investigation into SMEC International, with SMEC agreeing to a $9m settlement under the Proceeds of Crime Act, after years of inquiry across jurisdictions including Sri Lanka and Vietnam. Housing & Affordability: Australia’s housing downturn is deepening, with reports pointing to falling home prices, rising pressure on buyers (including first-home buyers on small deposits), and warnings that the slump could extend into 2027. Retail Payments Impacting Costs: A new ban on card surcharges takes effect, but businesses still face the bill via higher prices or absorbing costs—an issue that could ripple into household budgets and consumer spending. Property Deals & Demand: A private investor has bought a West Gosford Ford site for $10m, with the asset secured by a net lease to 2028—another sign of ongoing appetite for well-located income-producing property. Energy & Infrastructure: Battery and grid projects keep rolling forward, including approvals and major developments that may shape future land and construction demand. Local Market Watch: Western Sydney homeowners are “battening down the hatches” as rate pressure bites, while market commentary highlights how bond moves are rattling sentiment.

Housing Downturn: Australian home prices fell for the sixth straight month in September, down 1.1% and 5.2% below the March peak, with Sydney down 1.4% as higher rates keep squeezing buyer demand. RBA Watch: The RBA says most households can cope with the “twin storm” of rising interest costs and falling values, but first-home buyers on big loans remain the most exposed to negative equity. Market Pressure: ASX slid again as bond yields stayed elevated, with housing-linked sentiment weighing on the broader market. Private Credit & Lending: Analysts warn a “perfect storm” is building as falling valuations, weaker development activity and private credit exposure raise downside risks for the economy and construction pipeline. Tax & Data Centres: The ATO moves to broaden royalty withholding rules for offshore software/cloud arrangements, while AGL flags data centres as a major opportunity by repurposing coal and gas sites into energy hubs. Energy Projects: Origin Energy shelved its Skye Ridge wind plan in NSW due to higher build costs, while Energy Vault secured NSW approval for a large BESS project. Coastal Risk: A new study estimates sea level rise could damage hundreds of thousands of coastal properties, with losses potentially reaching $855b under moderate emissions.